WALLY'S WINTER WEATHER PAGE 2011-2012

CLICK HERE for official (National Weather Service) forecast.

Friday

February 10, 2012 - 4:30 p.m.

See my Global Warming page - HERE
SNOW CHANCES:

Other Winter Precip
60%
TODAY-TONIGHT
10%
TODAY-TONIGHT
30%
TOMORROW
0%
TOMORROW
0%
48-72 Hrs.
0%
48-72 Hrs.
50%
3-5 Days
20%
3-5 Days
10%
6-7 Days
0%
6-7 Days
FIRST REAL SNOWFALL?

Two things of note in latest official forecast. An inch possible tonight, and inch possible in the morning. Interesting with only a 50 and 30 percent chance of snow. Also, the NWS map shows closer to just one inch overall in the Roanoke Valley. Meanwhile, wind gusts have been upped to 60 mph tomorrow evening. Get your yard items in.

Now here is an upper map that looks more wintry for us. See the dip near our region ... cold air right out of the deep north.

It's going to get seriously cold this weekend. I remember telling someone last Tuesday (when it was near 60) that it will stun some folks when we hit 18 degrees Sunday morning. And, with still some breezy-ness ... get your big coats.

We'll also watch next Tuesday's similar situation. Models have the amount up and down ... sometimes with maybe 2-3", sometimes less. It may be slightly colder, with less rain mix. The Canadian model makes it minimal, but puts a bigger snow in here Thursday. GFS has it warming up by late week. Picture gets hazy that far out.

Check back!

Fearless WINTER 2011-12 OUTLOOK UPDATED Jan. 14

WM

mayo@weatherroanoke.com
*Models consulted, sometimes used as abbreviated:
GFS: Global Forecast System - Main US model - longest range (to 16 days)
WRF: North America Mesoscale (replaces ETA) - High resolution (newer, but has it's peculiarities)
GGEM/RGEM - Canadian models (Global and Regional)
ECMWF - European model ("medium" range to 7 days)
UKMET - British model
NOGAPS - US Navy model
RUC - Rapid Update Cycle (short term run hourly)
DGEX - an acronym for the Downscaled GFS with Eta Extension.  DGEX has been developed as an interim solution to providing high-resolution forecast guidance for populating the digital forecast database at extended forecast projections.  It is produced by running the full 12-km, 60 level, Eta model from forecast hour 78 to forecast hour 192 using lateral boundary conditions (LBC) from the previous cycle of the GFS.  These LBC’s are applied at every 3 hours between 78 and 174 hr, and every 6 hours between 174 and 192 hrs.
SREF - Short Range Ensembles
HRW - Very high res zoomed into regions
and some "ensembles" of GFS and Canadian models (parallel runs with slight changes in variables, though with less resolution)
*Other abbreviations used:
WX - Weather
NCEP - National Center for Environmental Prediction (Nat'l Headquarters of the Nat'l Weather Service)
HPC - Hydrological Prediction Center (National prediction office of NWS)
CONUS - Continental US
PCPN - Precipitation
SYS - System
NE - northeast, SE - southeast, NNW north-north-west, etc.
NAO - North Atlantic Oscillation (negative suggests cold east US)
AO - Arctic Oscillation (negative suggests cold east US)
PNA - Pacific North-Atlantic Oscillation (positive suggests stormier east)
MJO - Madden-Julian Oscillation (a cycle of precip)
GENERAL CURRENT SNOWFALL MAPS:
CLICK HERE for graphic of north Mid-Atlantic snowdepth
CLICK HERE for general USA snowdepth (Air Force)
CLICK for 1-day snow accumulation for Virginia  NC   WV
CLICK for snowdepth for Virginia  NC  WV
CLICK for month to date snowfall for VIRGINIA
CLICK for season to date snowfall for VIRGINIA

SEE MY NEW PAGE that discusses forecasting techniques and background. Click HERE.

DICLAIMER AND COMMENT: This page is just for fun, and my forecast, may vary from the National Weather Service by quite a bit a times. There is no liability assumed for anything resulting from this page. Do not use this page to plan anything. Refer to official National Weather Service forecasts for responsible action. I studied some meteorology at The Florida State University School of Meteorology and do study various models and internal weather service discussions. In any case, any forecast on this page which is more than 8-12 hours old should be disregarded as out-of-date. If you have any comments, leave me e-mail.

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