WALLY'S WINTER WEATHER PAGE 2009-2010

CLICK HERE for official (National Weather Service) forecast.

See my Global Warming page - HERE

SNOW CHANCES:		Other Winter Precip
0%	TODAY-TONIGHT	0%	TODAY-TONIGHT
0%	TOMORROW	0%	TOMORROW
0%	48-72 Hrs.	0%	48-72 Hrs.
0%	3-5 Days	0%	3-5 Days
0%	6-7 Days	0%	6-7 Days

APRIL WILL BRING BIG CHANGES

It will be like someone turned the lights on on April 1. Suddenly, it will get sunny and warm ... quite warm. But not before we have a cold, wet nasty Sunday tomorrow. Then it stays cool until mid-week.

From there expect a warm and drier April. There is one exception about April 7-9, which will bring a quick shot of colder air. Otherwise, we will be in a pattern that will be almost May-like, including severe weather in the plains and other area.

My tally for snow this winter season is 46.25", while the airport reports 43.1"
That's the most since 1996, and far beyond the typical 6-14" we've had for 13 straight years ... way below the 24" average.

El Nino is to blame for the wet winter, a very strong "blocking pattern" (negative NAO) for the cold in the eastern US, as well as a very strongly negative Artic Oscillation (AO). Contributing factors included how the EPO was set up (dealing with fast Pacific flow/lack of), and even ocean thermal profiles ... all set us up for a snowy winter. It's like the rubber band snapped after many years of "bad" configurations.

Long range outlook from NOAA indicates mainly normal temps for a number of months, but a warmer than usual August. Then back to normal.

Again, updates will only come with VERY significant weather such as a surprise cold or snow situation, and maybe if need be during tropical storm threats.

Check back.

mayo@weatherroanoke.com

*Models consulted, sometimes used as abbreviated:
GFS: Global Forecast System - Main US model - longest range (to 16 days)
WRF: North America Mesoscale (replaces ETA) - High resolution (newer, but has it's peculiarities)
GGEM/RGEM - Canadian models
ECMWF - European model ("medium" range to 7 days)
UKMET - British model
NOGAPS - US Navy model
RUC - Rapid Update Cycle (short term run hourly)
DGEX - an acronym for the Downscaled GFS with Eta Extension. DGEX has been developed as an interim solution to providing high-resolution forecast guidance for populating the digital forecast database at extended forecast projections. It is produced by running the full 12-km, 60 level, Eta model from forecast hour 78 to forecast hour 192 using lateral boundary conditions (LBC) from the previous cycle of the GFS. These LBC’s are applied at every 3 hours between 78 and 174 hr, and every 6 hours between 174 and 192 hrs.
SREF - Short Range Ensembles
HRW - Very high res zoomed into regions
and some "ensembles" of GFS and Canadian models (parallel runs with slight changes in variables, though with less resolution)
*Other abbreviations used:
WX - Weather
NCEP - National Center for Environmental Prediction (Nat'l Headquarters of the Nat'l Weather Service)
HPC - Hydrological Prediction Center (National prediction office of NWS)
CONUS - Continental US
PCPN - Precipitation
SYS - System
NE - northeast, SE - southeast, NNW north-north-west, etc.
NAO - North Atlantic Oscillation (negative suggests cold east US)
AO - Arctic Oscillation (negative suggests cold east US)
PNA - Pacific North-Atlantic Oscillation (positive suggests stormier east)
MJO - Madden-Julian Oscillation (a cycle of precip)

GENERAL CURRENT SNOWFALL MAPS:
CLICK HERE for graphic of north Mid-Atlantic snowdepth
CLICK HERE for general USA snowdepth (Air Force)
CLICK for 1-day snow accumulation for Virginia NC WV
CLICK for snowdepth for Virginia NC WV
CLICK for month to date snowfall for VIRGINIA
CLICK for season to date snowfall for VIRGINIA

SEE MY NEW PAGE that discusses forecasting techniques and background. Click HERE.

DICLAIMER AND COMMENT: This page is just for fun, and my forecast, may vary from the National Weather Service by quite a bit a times. There is no liability assumed for anything resulting from this page. Do not use this page to plan anything. Refer to official National Weather Service forecasts for responsible action. I studied some meteorology at The Florida State University School of Meteorology and do study various models and internal weather service discussions. In any case, any forecast on this page which is more than 8-12 hours old should be disregarded as out-of-date. If you have any comments, leave me e-mail.

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Saturday - March 27, 2010 - 8:30 a.m.