WALLY'S WEATHER PAGE 2007-8

CLICK HERE for official (National Weather Service) forecast. Otherwise:

WALLY'S OUTLOOK
Friday - April 11, 2008 - 3:30 pm
SNOW CHANCES:

Other Winter Precip
0%
TODAY-TONIGHT
0%
TODAY-TONIGHT
0%
TOMORROW
0%
TOMORROW
10%
48-72 Hrs.
0%
48-72 Hrs.
0%
3-5 Days
0%
3-5 Days
0%
6-7 Days
0%
6-7 Days
WHERE?
 
The major system affecting mid-US will drag a cold front through and return us to cooler weather. The snow chances have dwindled - AGAIN - as some models show it just JUMPING OVER us, and others just near and around us. The GFS has more of a chance of snow at Mytle Beach than here, and the "snow low" is too far east to impact us greatly. Thus, we continue the late-season pattern of systems too far west or too far east.
 
Winds are gusting near 30 mph here this afternoon, but we're elevated here. So far, the airport hasn't had anything higher than about 18 mph. There is a place called Salt Flats, TX, that yesterday, had forecasted winds 60 mph with gusts to 95 mph. Anyone for the desert SW?
 
In the near future, I plan to do two articles: 1 - Why it didn't snow (much) in Roanoke this year; and 2 - My take on Global Warming.
 
Check back then.
---------
 
MY WINTER PROJECTION (issued end of Sept.):
We may get a quick cold shot in mid-October or 3rd week, but we will continue overall mild and dry into early November. Then we will see colder, more normal weather. December will be variable, and January sorta mild for the first part. Somewhere in late January or February, winter really zaps in, and stays almost into April. Now -- such a forecast this far away isn't worth much, but there you have it. The NWS say it will all be a VERY VERY mild/dry winter this year; the Farmers Almanac says cold and snowy. We'll see who wins that battle.
WM
mayo@weatherroanoke.com
*Models consulted, sometimes used as abbreviated:
GFS: Global Forecast System - Main US model - longest range (to 16 days)
NAM: North America Mesoscale (former ETA) - High resolution (newer, but has it's peculiarities)
NGM: Nested Grid Model - Other US model - oldest, low resolution, not used much.
GGEM/RGEM - Canadian models
ECMWF - European model ("medium" range to 7 days)
UKMET - British model
NOGAPS - US Navy model
RUC - Rapid Update Cycle (short term run hourly)
SREF - Short Range Ensembles
HRW - Very high res zoomed into regions
and some "ensembles" of models (parallel runs with slight changes in variables, though with less resolution)
*Other abbreviations used:
NCEP - National Center for Environmental Prediction (Nat'l Headquarters of the Nat'l Weather Service)
HPC - Hydrological Prediction Center (National prediction office of NWS)
CONUS - Continental US
PCPN - Precipitation
SYS - System
NE - northeast, SE - southeast, NNW north-north-west, etc.
NAO - North Atlantic Oscillation (negative suggests cold east US)
AO - Arctic Oscillation (negative suggests cold east US)
PNA - Pacific North-Atlantic Oscillation (positive suggests stormier east)
MJO - Madden-Julian Oscillation (a cycle of precip)
GENERAL CURRENT SNOWFALL MAPS:
CLICK HERE for graphic of north Mid-Atlantic snowdepth
CLICK HERE for general USA snowdepth (Air Force)
CLICK for 1-day snow accumulation for Virginia  NC   WV
CLICK for snowdepth for Virginia  NC  WV
CLICK for month to date snowfall for VIRGINIA
CLICK for season to date snowfall for VIRGINIA

SEE MY NEW PAGE that discusses forecasting techniques and background. Click HERE.

DICLAIMER AND COMMENT: This page is just for fun, and my forecast, may vary from the National Weather Service by quite a bit a times. There is no liability assumed for anything resulting from this page. Do not use this page to plan anything. Refer to official National Weather Service forecasts for responsible action. I studied some meteorology at The Florida State University School of Meteorology and do study various models and internal weather service discussions. In any case, any forecast on this page which is more than 8-12 hours old should be disregarded as out-of-date. If you have any comments, leave me e-mail.

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