WALLY'S WINTER WEATHER PAGE 2009-2010

CLICK HERE for official (National Weather Service) forecast.

See my Global Warming page - HERE

SNOW CHANCES:		Other Winter Precip
0%	TODAY-TONIGHT	0%	TODAY-TONIGHT
0%	TOMORROW	0%	TOMORROW
0%	48-72 Hrs.	0%	48-72 Hrs.
0%	3-5 Days	0%	3-5 Days
0%	6-7 Days	0%	6-7 Days

LAST POST FOR A WHILE

Yeah, I know, there isn't much rain on the radar now, but there WILL be. Tonight and tomorrow will be a wet time.

If the GFS were to be believed, winter is really totally over, and we can expect basically April and May type weather into the foreseeable future. Well, the Canadian and a few other runs indicate that we will at least get back to more normal temps and weather after the equinox. Still, no main/operational model shows any snow (though a couple of ensembles might). Generally, March is NOT going to be a winter month this year. It's hard to believe back in 1993 ON THIS DATE ... the superstorm brought DEEP DEEP snow ... drifts, and single digits. (I assume single digits here, because we hit 10 degrees in N Florida!). What a difference we can have in different years!!

So ... I'm suspending the DISCUSSIONS until something emerges. Do check back. I intend to at least do a summary of our past winter ... patterns, whys, and noteables.

I may revive this during hurricanse season.

Check back.

mayo@weatherroanoke.com

*Models consulted, sometimes used as abbreviated:
GFS: Global Forecast System - Main US model - longest range (to 16 days)
WRF: North America Mesoscale (replaces ETA) - High resolution (newer, but has it's peculiarities)
GGEM/RGEM - Canadian models
ECMWF - European model ("medium" range to 7 days)
UKMET - British model
NOGAPS - US Navy model
RUC - Rapid Update Cycle (short term run hourly)
DGEX - an acronym for the Downscaled GFS with Eta Extension. DGEX has been developed as an interim solution to providing high-resolution forecast guidance for populating the digital forecast database at extended forecast projections. It is produced by running the full 12-km, 60 level, Eta model from forecast hour 78 to forecast hour 192 using lateral boundary conditions (LBC) from the previous cycle of the GFS. These LBC’s are applied at every 3 hours between 78 and 174 hr, and every 6 hours between 174 and 192 hrs.
SREF - Short Range Ensembles
HRW - Very high res zoomed into regions
and some "ensembles" of GFS and Canadian models (parallel runs with slight changes in variables, though with less resolution)
*Other abbreviations used:
WX - Weather
NCEP - National Center for Environmental Prediction (Nat'l Headquarters of the Nat'l Weather Service)
HPC - Hydrological Prediction Center (National prediction office of NWS)
CONUS - Continental US
PCPN - Precipitation
SYS - System
NE - northeast, SE - southeast, NNW north-north-west, etc.
NAO - North Atlantic Oscillation (negative suggests cold east US)
AO - Arctic Oscillation (negative suggests cold east US)
PNA - Pacific North-Atlantic Oscillation (positive suggests stormier east)
MJO - Madden-Julian Oscillation (a cycle of precip)

GENERAL CURRENT SNOWFALL MAPS:
CLICK HERE for graphic of north Mid-Atlantic snowdepth
CLICK HERE for general USA snowdepth (Air Force)
CLICK for 1-day snow accumulation for Virginia NC WV
CLICK for snowdepth for Virginia NC WV
CLICK for month to date snowfall for VIRGINIA
CLICK for season to date snowfall for VIRGINIA

SEE MY NEW PAGE that discusses forecasting techniques and background. Click HERE.

DICLAIMER AND COMMENT: This page is just for fun, and my forecast, may vary from the National Weather Service by quite a bit a times. There is no liability assumed for anything resulting from this page. Do not use this page to plan anything. Refer to official National Weather Service forecasts for responsible action. I studied some meteorology at The Florida State University School of Meteorology and do study various models and internal weather service discussions. In any case, any forecast on this page which is more than 8-12 hours old should be disregarded as out-of-date. If you have any comments, leave me e-mail.

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Friday - March 12, 2010 - 7:30 a.m.