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WALLY'S WINTER WEATHER PAGE 2009-2010
CLICK HERE for official (National Weather Service) forecast.
Friday - March 12, 2010
- 7:30 a.m.
- See my Global Warming page
- HERE
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- SNOW CHANCES:
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Other Winter Precip
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- 0%
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- TODAY-TONIGHT
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- 0%
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- TODAY-TONIGHT
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- 0%
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- TOMORROW
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- 0%
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- TOMORROW
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- 0%
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- 48-72 Hrs.
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- 0%
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- 48-72 Hrs.
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- 0%
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- 3-5 Days
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- 0%
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- 3-5 Days
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- 0%
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- 6-7 Days
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- 0%
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- 6-7 Days
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- LAST POST FOR A WHILE
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- Yeah, I know, there isn't much rain on the radar now,
but there WILL be. Tonight and tomorrow will be a wet time.
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- If the GFS were to be believed, winter is really totally
over, and we can expect basically April and May type weather
into the foreseeable future. Well, the Canadian and a few
other runs indicate that we will at least get back to more
normal temps and weather after the equinox. Still, no main/operational
model shows any snow (though a couple of ensembles might).
Generally, March is NOT going to be a winter month this
year. It's hard to believe back in 1993 ON THIS DATE ... the
superstorm brought DEEP DEEP snow ... drifts, and single
digits. (I assume single digits here, because we hit 10
degrees in N Florida!). What a difference we can have in
different years!!
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- So ... I'm suspending the DISCUSSIONS until something
emerges. Do check back. I intend to at least do a summary
of our past winter ... patterns, whys, and noteables.
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- I may revive this during hurricanse season.
- Check back.
WM
- mayo@weatherroanoke.com
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*Models consulted, sometimes used as abbreviated:
- GFS: Global
Forecast System
- Main US model - longest range (to 16 days)
- WRF:
North America Mesoscale (replaces ETA) - High resolution (newer,
but has it's peculiarities)
- GGEM/RGEM - Canadian models
- ECMWF - European model ("medium" range to 7 days)
- UKMET - British model
- NOGAPS - US Navy model
- RUC - Rapid Update Cycle (short term run hourly)
- DGEX - an acronym for the Downscaled GFS with Eta Extension. DGEX
has been developed as an interim solution to providing high-resolution forecast guidance for populating the digital
forecast database at extended forecast projections. It is produced by running the full 12-km, 60
level, Eta model from forecast hour 78 to forecast hour 192 using lateral boundary
conditions (LBC) from the previous cycle of the GFS. These LBC’s are applied at every 3 hours
between 78 and 174 hr, and every 6 hours between 174 and 192 hrs.
- SREF - Short Range Ensembles
- HRW - Very high res zoomed into regions
- and
some "ensembles" of GFS and Canadian models (parallel runs with
slight changes in variables, though with less resolution)
- *Other abbreviations used:
- WX
- Weather
- NCEP - National Center for Environmental Prediction (Nat'l
Headquarters of the Nat'l Weather Service)
- HPC - Hydrological Prediction Center
(National prediction office of NWS)
- CONUS - Continental US
- PCPN - Precipitation
- SYS - System
- NE - northeast, SE - southeast, NNW north-north-west,
etc.
- NAO - North Atlantic Oscillation (negative suggests cold
east US)
- AO - Arctic Oscillation (negative suggests
cold east US)
- PNA - Pacific North-Atlantic Oscillation (positive suggests
stormier east)
- MJO - Madden-Julian Oscillation (a cycle of precip)
- GENERAL CURRENT SNOWFALL MAPS:
- CLICK
HERE for graphic of north Mid-Atlantic snowdepth
- CLICK
HERE for general USA snowdepth (Air Force)
- CLICK for 1-day snow accumulation
for Virginia
NC
WV
- CLICK for snowdepth
for Virginia
NC
WV
- CLICK for month to date snowfall for VIRGINIA
- CLICK for season to date snowfall for VIRGINIA
SEE MY NEW PAGE that discusses forecasting techniques and background. Click HERE.
DICLAIMER AND COMMENT: This page is just for fun, and my forecast, may vary from the National Weather Service by quite a bit a times. There is no liability assumed for
anything resulting from this page. Do not use this page to plan anything. Refer to official National Weather Service forecasts for responsible action. I studied some
meteorology at The Florida State
University School of Meteorology and do study various models and internal weather service discussions. In any case, any forecast on this page which is more than 8-12 hours old
should be disregarded as out-of-date. If you have any comments, leave me e-mail.
To e-mail me click button: 
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